I had quite a Ukraine war news addiction for a couple of weeks months there earlier this year. I had to go cold turkey because it was doing my head in.
I found myself scanning the newswires again this week, looking for updates on the Kherson offensive. It’s both deeply satisfying and a little bit scary, given that Putin seems entirely capable of lobbing a few nukes around simply to save his own worthless skin.
On the other hand, it serves his purposes to think that way, and the Ukrainians don’t seem to care. They’re just punching on and on and on.
If you’re looking for a good analytic summary, Lawrence Freedman is always worth a read.
As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout. A supposedly resilient and well-equipped army can break and look for means of escape. This is not unusual in war. We saw it happen with the Afghan Army in the summer of 2021.
For the past few days we have been witnessing a remarkable Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv. We have the spectacle of a bedraggled army in retreat - remnants of a smashed-up convoy, abandoned vehicles, positions left in a hurry, with scattered kit and uneaten food, miserable prisoners, and local people cheering on the Ukrainian forces as they drive through their villages. The speed of advance has been impressive, as tens of square kilometres turn into hundreds and then thousands, and from a handful of villages and towns liberated to dozens. Even as I have been writing this post paragraphs keep on getting overtaken by events.
Yeah it's openness battling deception, and openness has more friends and is fighting a good fight. Sure, it's all relative, and present conditions in Russia have deep roots in a struggle against oppression there. Nevertheless, it's fascinating to see where the political culture Putin has fostered has landed him, as expressed in the condition of his military forces.
One thing that we don’t hear from our vaunted leaders is some kind of peace plan to end this war. I guess that’s become a bad word. Also no accountability for the billions in weapons and whether they are ending up in the right hands. Typical nowadays .
You have no idea about the level of accountability and are just assuming. Considering we've seen a hell of a lot of the donated kit in action, I think it's probably being done right.
Simple? They aren’t leaving , they are escalating . The endgame may be nuclear annihilation. As far as missing weapons I’m not just assuming. There are plenty articles asking that very question . It’s not just me. We armed the Mujahadeen . We backed and armed Saddam. On and on . It always ends badly
You’re right it’s not the place for this . I had just watched Eric Weinstein talk about the danger we face and how it seems like folks here believe they can watch a nuc exchange from Starbucks . Got a little worked up I can be a genuine ass . I’d rather laugh over a good beer and barbecue. Im done
It's a dangerous time, Bill. And that danger comes in 31 flavours of Hell. Instant immolation in a nuclear war. But also slow, strangling death as autocracy slips its tentacles around everything, everywhere. Sucks, really.
Having a rational discussion about a possible nuclear exchange is absurd. Putin would be done? Yeah along with humanity. I guess people need to be reminded of the horror we face. We are closer to a nuclear exchange than any time in history. It’s not a winnable situation. The resl tough question we may face soon is whether Ukraine is worth a bucks exchange and Armageddon.
If we don't, we have just proved nuclear blackmail works.
Next up for Russia will be Poland or the Baltics, China decides it wants Taiwan now, etc.
Or we stop it now. You are assuming NATO would respond to a tactical weapon with a nuke of its own. Current thinking is it would probably massive conventional response, plus possibly a few ballistic missile submarines disappearing.
Or do you still prefer to kiss Putins ring in fear?
Nope, lot's of people much smarter and more knowledgeable than me are discussing the subject.
Biden is a halfwit? You know this how? You're the one coming across as more than a little hysterical and obsessed. So far Biden has played a blinder - he just doesn't grandstand.
I said the solution was simple, not that it was likely. The Ukrainians will settle for nothing less - and why should they?
There is also a huge difference between supplying weapons to militias like the mujahadeen, Iraq and a democratic national government. They are hardly likely to publicly say "the tanks that Poland gave us are now at this location" are they? They may as well say "Please mallet here to cripple our future offensive".
As for escalation? He goes nuclear, he's done and he knows that. Even the Chinese and Indians would come in unequivocally on Ukraines side at that point. It's not something you can handwave away.
After all, you can't spend your ill gotten gains in a wasteland can you?
Yeah it's openness battling deception, and openness has more friends and is fighting a good fight. Sure, it's all relative, and present conditions in Russia have deep roots in a struggle against oppression there. Nevertheless, it's fascinating to see where the political culture Putin has fostered has landed him, as expressed in the condition of his military forces.
One thing that we don’t hear from our vaunted leaders is some kind of peace plan to end this war. I guess that’s become a bad word. Also no accountability for the billions in weapons and whether they are ending up in the right hands. Typical nowadays .
Peace plan? Russla leaves, war ends. Simple.
You have no idea about the level of accountability and are just assuming. Considering we've seen a hell of a lot of the donated kit in action, I think it's probably being done right.
Simple? They aren’t leaving , they are escalating . The endgame may be nuclear annihilation. As far as missing weapons I’m not just assuming. There are plenty articles asking that very question . It’s not just me. We armed the Mujahadeen . We backed and armed Saddam. On and on . It always ends badly
Found it ... might have been Einstein first but it’s a quote from Crimson Tide .... Denzel Washington
Hilarious.
You’re right it’s not the place for this . I had just watched Eric Weinstein talk about the danger we face and how it seems like folks here believe they can watch a nuc exchange from Starbucks . Got a little worked up I can be a genuine ass . I’d rather laugh over a good beer and barbecue. Im done
It's a dangerous time, Bill. And that danger comes in 31 flavours of Hell. Instant immolation in a nuclear war. But also slow, strangling death as autocracy slips its tentacles around everything, everywhere. Sucks, really.
For sure. There’s a quote that has stuck with me . Might have been from a movie . Can’t remember.... In the nuclear age the true enemy is war itself
I think that was Einstein.
A nuclear exchange *
Having a rational discussion about a possible nuclear exchange is absurd. Putin would be done? Yeah along with humanity. I guess people need to be reminded of the horror we face. We are closer to a nuclear exchange than any time in history. It’s not a winnable situation. The resl tough question we may face soon is whether Ukraine is worth a bucks exchange and Armageddon.
If we don't, we have just proved nuclear blackmail works.
Next up for Russia will be Poland or the Baltics, China decides it wants Taiwan now, etc.
Or we stop it now. You are assuming NATO would respond to a tactical weapon with a nuke of its own. Current thinking is it would probably massive conventional response, plus possibly a few ballistic missile submarines disappearing.
Or do you still prefer to kiss Putins ring in fear?
You sound like all of the pretend tough guys in the media. Like the halfwit Biden.
Nope, lot's of people much smarter and more knowledgeable than me are discussing the subject.
Biden is a halfwit? You know this how? You're the one coming across as more than a little hysterical and obsessed. So far Biden has played a blinder - he just doesn't grandstand.
I said the solution was simple, not that it was likely. The Ukrainians will settle for nothing less - and why should they?
There is also a huge difference between supplying weapons to militias like the mujahadeen, Iraq and a democratic national government. They are hardly likely to publicly say "the tanks that Poland gave us are now at this location" are they? They may as well say "Please mallet here to cripple our future offensive".
As for escalation? He goes nuclear, he's done and he knows that. Even the Chinese and Indians would come in unequivocally on Ukraines side at that point. It's not something you can handwave away.
After all, you can't spend your ill gotten gains in a wasteland can you?