Words are wind.

I read the first four novels in the Game of Thrones series for work. The Sydney Morning Herald had an interview slot with GRR Martin for the launch of the TV series. He was a generous subject as I recall, and I got a lot of great copy out of our chat. (In fact I think I recall his publicist desperately trying to shut him up).

Anyway, I liked the books. They were awesome, but I’m not hanging out for the end of the series because I don’t think it will ever happen. The guy is hopelessly, hideously blocked.

Confirmation came this morning from Forbes, (via JasonL).

Martin continues to struggle to complete the long overdue tome. The last book released on July 12th, 2011 the day my now-13-year-old son turned 1. There is still no publish date in sight, and may well never be. This bums me out. I am constantly reminded just how much of a major bummer Martin’s inability to finish this book (and this series is).

Last year, Martin said he’d finished 1,100 to 1,200 pages of the Winds and had a few hundred more to go. So I did the math. I ran the numbers. You can click that link to see how I ran the numbers, but basically I concluded:

So if Martin continues to write at the pace he’s been writing, and has this many more pages left to go, we’re looking at a best-case scenario of 3.8 years for Winds Of Winter to be finished and a worst-case of 5.18 years. That doesn’t include the process after he’s done writing, which includes editing and marketing and going to print and getting it digitized and distribution and all the rest.

But while math is comforting in its solidity and reason, human fickleness knows no bounds. We’ve learned recently that one whole year later, Martin has still only written about 1,100 pages of Winds and continues to struggle with the writing process, despite it being his chief project (of many).

Speaking on the podcast Bangcast, the fantasy author said:

"The main thing I'm actually writing, of course, is the same thing... I wish I could write as fast as [The Last Kingdom author Bernard Cornwell] but I'm 12 years late on this damn novel and I'm struggling with it.

"I have like 1,100 pages written but I still have hundreds more pages to go. It's a big mother of a book for whatever reason. Maybe I should've started writing smaller books when I began this but it's tough. That's the main thing that dominates most of my working life."